Search results for "Autoregressive integrated moving average"

Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Production in Smart Homes through Statistical Methods

2022

Abstract Over the last years, a steady increase in both domestic electricity consumption and in the adoption of personal clean energy production systems has been observed worldwide. By analyzing energy consumption and production on photovoltaic panels mounted in a house, this work focuses on finding patterns in electrical energy consumption and devising a predictive model. Our goal is to find an accurate method to predict electrical energy consumption and production. Being able to anticipate how consumers will use energy in the near future, homeowners, companies and governments may optimize their behavior and the import and export of electricity. We evaluated the ARIMA and TBATS statistical…

Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast

2019

This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast …

Exchange Rate Volatility in the Balkans and Eastern Europe: Implications for International Investments

2016

Our paper’s objective is to study the volatility of exchange rates from the region that have not yet adopted the Euro and are not members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II by considering the exchange rate regime and the implications of currency volatility for foreign capital flows. We model exchange rate volatility by using standard deviations of daily logarithmic changes in the exchange rates, rolling standard deviations, Hodrick-Prescott filters to detect the trends in volatility and ARIMA models. We find that currency volatility remains a strong issue for these countries and that central banks have attempted to manage it, particularly after the global financial crisis. Spikes in monthly …

Kinetic Monte Carlo modeling of Y2O3 nano-cluster formation in radiation resistant matrices

2018

This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 633053. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing

2010

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates computation and considerably reduces data storage requirements. Consequently, they are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning. After selecting the most adequate model to replicate patterns of the time series under study, the system provides accurate forecasts which can play decisive roles in organizational planning, budgeting and performance monitoring.

TRAVELLING TOWARDS AND FROM MINOR ISLANDS THROUGH NON-CONVENTIONAL AIR TRANSPORT: DEMAND AND COST ANALYSIS

2010

This research addresses the role of innovative forms of passenger air transport in favouring mobility of tourists visiting minor islands. In particular, we studied the feasibility of scheduled transport services using helicopter and seaplane for connecting Sicily in the south of Italy, to the near and very attractive Eolie Islands rapidly. In order to estimate the potential service demand, we allowed for the number of tourists arriving in the Eolie Archipelago during the period 1999-2008. In detail, we considered only the market of visitors with a high willingness-to-pay for time savings (individuals choosing superior hotels) coming from origins at least 300 km away from the Eolie Islands. …

Outlier detection with automatic modelling: TRAMO/SEATS versus X-12-ARIMA

2012

Drivers of Competitiveness in European High-Tech Industries

2019

Our paper builds on the importance of high-tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services as significant competitiveness and economic growth drivers in the European Union and offers a fresh approach of the study on the competitiveness of secondary and tertiary high-tech industries across EU member states. Our analysis covers the 2008–2015 period and includes twelve old and new EU members. We opt for a balanced panel data approach in OLS and ARIMA frameworks to investigate the competitiveness of high-technology industries in the EU with the aim of uncovering the nature of the main explanatory factors behind their performance. Our results show that the number of persons employed and the …

Assessing the Beneficial Effects of Economic Growth: The Harmonic Growth Index

2011

In this paper we introduce the multidimensional notion of harmonic growth as a situation of diffused well-being associated to an increase of per capita GDP. We say that a country experienced a harmonic growth if during the observed period all the key indicators, proxies of the endogenous and exogenous forces driving population well-being, show a significantly common pattern with the income dynamics. The notion is operationalized via an index of time series harmony which follows the functional data analysis approach. This Harmonic Growth Index (HGI) is based on comparisons between the coefficients from cubic B-splines interpolation. Such indices are then synthesized in order to provide the g…

COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are Data Talking? Evidence From ARMA and Vector Autoregression Models

2020

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to reduce the significant amount of cases that arrive at the hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. After the first weeks, the worry was whether or not the healthcare system would collapse rather than its response to the patient's needs who are infected and require hospitalization. Using China as a mirror of what could happen in ou…